(“But HOW sure?”)

When you decide to go showing, obviously you want to have some expectation of success. Here I’m not referring to the “If I’m not going to win, why would I bother?” viewpoint. That’s another topic. For most of us the questions ought to be “Do I belong in the ring at this level?” “Will my performance elicit unsightly gagging and retching from the judge?” “Will my dog no longer speak to me?”

In practical terms it boils down to whether the schooling you do at home is replicable in a strange venue when you have to put all the pieces together without the crutch of that extra circle while you’re getting his brain back in order. Though you don’t want to drill the tests endlessly, you should do enough “dress rehearsals” to avoid unpleasant surprises at the show.

Realistically, though you wish it were not so, you should plan for a ten percent cushion. Stuff can go wrong; so if you’re schooling 55% at home, you’re more likely to get a 45 at the show than miraculously have the best ride of your life. On the other hand, if you can wait till you’re schooling 70%, even with a significant drop off (or a mean and nasty “the glass is totally empty” judge), in the worst case scenario you’ll be comfortably in the 60s.

I’ve told the story of judging the guy in a top hat riding Intro A on a Second Level-looking warmblood. When queried, his rationale was that he didn’t want to move up until he could get all 10s. I was less than supportive of this tactic, since it most likely consigned him to Intro for the rest of his natural life.

There’s a happy medium where you can go out on a small limb and take a few chances without embarrassing yourself. Former FEI Dressage Committee Chairman Eric Lette said this is how you know how ready you really are:

If you do a movement (whether it’s the leg yielding and figure eight in First Level 3 or a line of tempis in PSG) and at the end of it, you go “Whew. I made it!”, then you really aren’t ready. Ironically if you do the same movement and you fail and your reaction is “Oh, damn, I blew it!” then you probably are ready. In other words if you expect success—if you aren’t surprised by it—then it’s time to send in your entry and GO FOR IT.